Part 2: Australians

Part 2 of a Multi-Part Analysis of Some Australian Data

The following information is taken largely from ABS data and

projections.

Often I am asked what the implications for a specific business

might be.

The only way to respond is to take each point and work it through

individually for a brand, product or service individually.

However, every brand, product and service will be effected by

these changes, some dramatically.

Population Changes

If birth-rate and immigration continue at present levels, according

to the ABS projections, Australia will be in population decline by

2050.

Until then, our population will rise by around 30% - to 26 million. 

In comparison, the world’s will rise by around 70%.

By that time, Indonesia, already 10 times our size, will be 12

times. Malaysia, our size now, will be double. 

The Greying of Australia

The Australian population is ageing quickly. The current median

age in Australia is 36 year.

In 20 years it will be 41 years of age!

In 50 years 25% of Australians will be aged over 65 years,

whereas that number is at 14% right now.

The population under 14 years will decline from 21% today to

15% in 2050.

Living Longer

We will live longer. The next generation might all live beyond 100

years of age.

Right now males live to 76 and females to 81 years.

Compare this with the life expectancy in the ACT - males 78 and

females 87 years.

Notably, the Northern territory life expectancy levels are

significantly lower - males 69 and females 75 years.

When you separate the indigenous figures from these the

numbers are shocking.

Fertility Rates

In the 1960's the fertility rate was around 3.6 children per female. 

These days the fertility rate is around 1.8 births per female, and

whilst this number has risen in the last few years, you can see

that such a dramatic shift will effect the population for

decades.

It is predicted by the ABS that the fertility rate will continue at this

level for many years. Some predictions even show a further

decline.

Even so, one in every three women will remain childless,

compared to one in four just a decade ago.

Startling!

The most significant shift in birth data is a rather dramatic move in

the median age of the birth of a female's first child:

In 1980 the median age of a female at the birth of her first child

was 23 years.

Today it's 31 years!

What this means for your business has to be determined on a

case-by-case basis, however, this one figure will almost certainly

have a significant impact upon your plans.

Living Longer

Australian longevity rates continue to rise (apart from indigenous

longevity).

Only Sweden and Japan "out age" us.

Just this week, a new report of a large study into youth health has

revealed that, for the first time in many decades, lower exercise

and subsequent obesity levels could lead to greater numbers of

cancers, heart disease and an overall reduction in longevity.

What Does It All Mean?

There is significant change within Australia that will effect your

brands, products or services. It seems vital to me that every case

must be studied individually, in order to estimate what the impact

will be, and what these changes mean for you.

Please do not hesitate to contact me if you require further

data/information, and any assistance in working through these

changes for your brands, products or services.